We survey the literature on stock return forecasting, highlighting the challenges faced by forecasters as well as strategies for improving return forecasts. Some studies argue that, despite extensive in-sample evidence of equity premium predictability, popular predictors from the literature fail to outperform the simple historical average benchmark forecast in out-of-sample tests. Recent studies, however, provide stock options paye forecasting strategies that deliver statistically and economically significant out-of-sample gains relative to the historical average benchmark.
In addition to the U. The significant evidence of stock return forecastability worldwide has important implications for the development of both asset pricing models and investment management strategies. Check if you have access through your login credentials or your institution. It’s worth checking to see if you qualify.
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